Will HVAC prices go down in 2026?

No one can promise it, and this page won’t guess. Climate Pros Tucson doesn’t set prices. What we can lay out is the set of rules that shape new equipment, so you can judge a quote and decide when to buy.

What rules changed the equipment?

Two federal changes matter most.

  • Refrigerant. The EPA’s rule for new residential split and unitary AC and heat pumps sets a global warming potential limit of 700, with installation compliance from January 1, 2025. Systems whose parts were all made or imported before January 1, 2025 have no installation compliance date, so pre-2025 R-410A equipment can still be installed. Existing R-410A systems can still be serviced. R-22 production and import ended on January 1, 2020, and existing R-22 systems can still be serviced with recycled or previously produced refrigerant.
  • Efficiency testing. The Department of Energy moved to SEER2, EER2 and HSPF2 testing with updated regional minimums effective January 1, 2023. Arizona is in the Southwest region.

Whether those rules raise or lower a price on your quote is a question for the pro. Ask what equipment is on the quote and what refrigerant it uses.

What affects the timing of a purchase?

Tucson’s cooling season is long. The airport averages about 68 days a year at or above 100F, and cooling demand stays heavy from May through September. If your system is still running, ask a pro whether scheduling a replacement outside the hottest months changes availability or pricing. That’s a conversation to have, not a promise.

If the system has already failed in July, you don’t have the same room to wait. Read what to do while you wait when your AC dies.

What can you control?

  • Get more than one written quote with the same lines: size, model, efficiency, permit, crane, refrigerant, removal.
  • Check the rebate. As listed by TEP in October 2026, the Efficient Home Program shows up to $600 for AC quality installation and up to $720 for a heat pump quality installation through a participating contractor. See TEP and Arizona rebates.
  • Ask about financing separately from the price, and compare terms. Read HVAC financing options in Tucson.
  • Decide repair or replace on the system’s condition, not on a hunch about the market. See repair or replace an AC in Tucson and the best time to buy an AC in Tucson.

For the refrigerant side, read R-22 vs R-410A vs newer refrigerants. Service page: AC installation. Start at the Tucson HVAC hub.

When to call us

If you’re planning a replacement and want licensed pros to quote it, call (520) 353-2520 and we’ll match you with a licensed local pro.